With all the shouting going on the American health care crisis, many may find it difficult to concentrate, let alone understand the causes of the problems we face. I find myself disappointed in the tone of the discussion (although I understand people are scared —) and also confused that there are people who consider themselves qualified enough to know how best to improve our health care system simply because they see it, when people who have spent entire careers studying (and I do not mean politicians) are not sure what to do themselves.
Albert Einstein was reputed to have said that if he has one hour to save the world he would spend 55 minutes defining the problem and only a 5 minute break. Our health care system is far more complex than most that offer solutions to admit or recognize, and unless we focus most of our efforts on defining the problem and really understand the cause, any changes we make will only make them worse because they are better.
Although I have worked in the American health care system as a doctor since 1992 and has a value of seven years experience as administrative director of primary care, I do not consider myself qualified to really evaluate the viability of most of the suggestions I’ve heard to improve the health care system we. I think, however, I can at least contribute to the discussion by explaining some of the problems, take a reasonable guess at the cause, and outlines some general principles should be applied in an attempt to solve it.
COST PROBLEM
There is no dispute that the U.S. health care spending has increased dramatically. According to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), health care spending is projected to reach $ 8,160 per person per year by the end of 2009 compared to $ 356 per person per year was 1970. This increase occurred about 2.4% faster than the increase in GDP over the same period. Although the GDP varies from year to year and therefore a perfect way to assess the increase in health care costs compared with other expenditures from one year to the next, we can still conclude from these data that during the last 40 years the percentage of our national income (personal, business , and the government) we have spent on health care has increased.
Despite what most think, this may or may not be bad. It all depends on two things: the reason why health care spending has increased relative to our GDP and how much value we are getting for every dollar we spend.
WHY BE A HEALTH so expensive?
This is a difficult question to answer than many would believe. Rising costs of health care (an average of 8.1% per year 1970-2009, calculated from the data above) has exceeded the increase in inflation (4.4% on average during the same period), so we can not attribute the increase in costs for inflation alone. Health care spending is closely linked to GDP is known (the richer nations, the more spent on health care), but even in the United States remains an outlier (Fig. 3).
Is it because spending on health care for people over the age of 75 (five times what we spend on people between the ages of 25 and 34)? In short, no. Studies show demographic trends explain only a fraction of the growth in health spending.
Is it because of dire profit health insurance companies are raking in? Probably not. This is admittedly difficult to know for sure because not all insurance companies are public and therefore have a balance available for public review. But Aetna, one of the largest public health insurance in North America, reported second-quarter 2009 earnings of $ 346.7 million which, if projected out, predicting an annual profit of approximately $ 1.3 billion from about 19 million people they insure. If we assume that their profit margin is the average for their industry (even if true, it probably is not much different from the average), total profit for all private health insurance companies in America, 202 million people are uninsured (2 points ) in 2007, will come to about $ 13 billion per year. Total health care spending in 2007 was $ 2.2 trillion (see Table 1, page 3), which produces private health care industry profits of about 0.6% of total health care costs (although the analysis of mixed data of different years, it may be permitted as the numbers will not differ by an order of magnitude).
Is it because of health care fraud? Estimated losses from various fraud as high as 10% of all health expenditures, but it’s hard to find hard data to support this. Although some percentage of fraud is almost certainly not be detected, probably the best way to estimate how much money is lost due to fraud is to look at how much the government actually recovered. In 2006, this is a $ 2.2 billion, only 0.1% at $ 2.1 trillion (see Table 1, page 3) in total health care expenditures for that year.
Is it because the cost of pharmaceuticals? In 2006, total expenditures for prescription drugs is about $ 216 billion (see Table 2, page 4). Although this is 10% of the $ 2.1 trillion (see Table 1, page 3) in total health care expenditures for that year and therefore must be considered significant, is still only a fraction of the total health care costs.
Is the cost of administration? In 1999, total administrative costs estimated to be $ 294 billion, 25% full of $ 1.2 trillion (Table 1) in total health care spending that year. This is a significant percentage in 1999 and it is difficult to imagine it shrinks to a significant extent since then.
In the end, though, what may have contributed the largest number with increased health care spending in the U.S. two things:
A. Technological innovation.

2. Overutilization of health care resources to patients and healthcare providers themselves.
Technological innovation. Data demonstrating the rising cost of health care is due in large part to technological innovation is surprisingly difficult to obtain, but estimates of contributing to rising health care costs due to various technological innovations anywhere from 40% to 65% (Table 2, page 8). Although we mostly only have empirical data for this, some examples illustrate the principle. Heart attacks used to be treated with aspirin and prayer. Now they are being treated with drugs to control shock, pulmonary edema, and arrhythmias as well as thrombolytic therapy, cardiac catheterization with angioplasty or stenting, and coronary artery bypass grafting. You do not have to be an economist to figure out which scenario ends up being more expensive. We can learn to do the same procedure is cheaper over time (in the same way we have found a way to make computers cheaper) but the cost per procedure decreased, the total amount spent on each procedure to rise because the number of procedures performed up . Laparoscopic cholecystectomy was 25% less than the price of an open cholecystectomy, but the second level has increased by 60%. As technology advances become more widely available they become more widely used, and one big thing we did in the United States is making the technology available.
Overutilization of health care resources to patients and healthcare providers themselves. We can easily define overutilization as unnecessary consumption of health care resources. What is not so easy is recognizing it. Every year from October to February the majority of patients who come to the Urgent Care Clinic at the hospital I was, in my view, it is not necessary. What they come for? Colds. I can provide support, reassurance that there is nothing seriously wrong, and advice on over-the-counter drugs — but none of these things will make them better more quickly (though I often can I reduce the level of concern) . Furthermore, patients have a hard time believing the key to arrive at a correct diagnosis lies in gathering the history and careful physical examination rather than technology-based testing (not that the latter is not important — just less than most patients believe). How many patient-driven health care system the cost of overutilization is difficult to pin down as we have mostly only anecdotal evidence as above.
Furthermore, doctors often disagree among themselves about what constitutes health care consumption are not necessary. In an excellent article, “The Cost Conundrum,” Atul Gawande argues that regional variations in the overutilization of health care resources to the best doctors account for regional variations in Medicare spending per person. He went on to say that if doctors can be motivated to curb overutilization them in high-cost areas of the country, Medicare would save enough money to remain solvent for 50 years.
A reasonable approach. To get it going, we need to understand why the doctor overutilizing health care resources in the first place:
A. Judgment varies in cases where the medical literature is unclear or unhelpful. When faced with a diagnostic dilemma or a standard treatment of disease has not been determined, the variation in practice always the case. If the primary care physician suspected the patient has an ulcer, if he treated her empirically or see a gastroenterologist for endoscopy? If a “red flag” symptoms are present, most doctors will refer. If not, some will and some will not depending on training and exercises judgment tangible.
2. Inexperience or poor judgment. More experienced doctors tended to rely on history and physical is more than less experienced physicians to order tests and consequently less and less expensive. Studies show primary care physicians spend less money on tests and procedures of sub-specialty colleagues, but they get the same results and sometimes even better.
3. Fear of being sued. It is very common in the emergency setting, but extends to virtually every field of medicine.
4. Patients tend to demand more rather than less testing. As mentioned above. And physicians often have difficulty resisting the demand of patients for various reasons (for example, want to please them, afraid of missing a diagnosis and be sued, etc.).
5. In many situations, overutilization doctors make more money. There exists no reliable incentive for doctors to limit their expenses unless they pay a capitated or they receive a straight salary.
Gawande article implies there is some level of health care resource utilization is optimal: using too little and you get an error and missed diagnoses; use too much and the excess money will be spent with no better results, paradoxically sometimes produce results that are really bad ( probably as a result of complications of all the additional testing and treatment).
So how do we get physicians to use a uniform assessment of whether to order the right number of tests and treatment for every patient — “sweet spot” — in order to produce the best results with the lowest risk of complications? Not easy. There is, fortunately or unfortunately, the art of health care resource utilization is good. Some doctors are more talented at it than others. There are diligent about keeping current. Some care more about their patients. Explosion of studies of medical tests and treatment has occurred in recent decades to help guide physicians in selecting the most effective, most secure way, and even the cheapest way to practice medicine, but the diffusion of evidence-based medicine is a tricky business. Just because beta blockers, for example, has been shown to improve survival after a heart attack does not mean that every physician who knows or provide them. The data clearly shows many are not. How to spread information from the medical literature in medical practice is a worthy subject of a post all its own. Get it to happen in a uniform manner has proven extremely difficult.
In summary, then, most of the increase in spending on health care seems to have come from technological innovation coupled with a doctor working in a redundant system that motivates them to practice medicine much better than drugs, and patients who want to think that the former produces the latter.
But even if we could snap our fingers and magically eliminate the overutilization of all these days, health care in the U.S. will still remain the most expensive in the world, we need to ask next —
WHAT WE GET VALUE FOR OUR DOLLARS SPENT?
According to an article in the New England Journal of Medicine entitled The Burden of Health Costs for Working Families — The implications of the Reformation, the growth of health care spending “could be defined as affordable as long as the percentage increase in revenues earmarked for health care does not reduce the standard of living. While the absolute increase in income can not keep up with the absolute increase in health care spending, the growth of health care can be paid only at the expense of consumption of goods and services that are not related to health care. “When did it ever become acceptable state affairs? Only when additional health care costs to buy an additional value equal or greater. If, for example, you are told that in the near future you will spend 60% of your income on health care but that as a result you will enjoy, say, 30% chance of living to age 250, perhaps you would consider that 60% of small price to pay .
This, in my opinion, is what the debate about health care spending is really to be about. Of course we have to work on ways to eliminate the overutilization. But the real question is not what the absolute value of money is too much to spend on health care. The real question is what we get for the money we spend and is it worth what we have to give up?
People concerned with the idea that rising healthcare costs policy makers may decide to ration health care do not realize that we have at least some of rationing. It just does not appear as if we are because we allotment is on a first-come-first-serve — leave at least partly to chance rather than a policy, which we define and enforce uncomfortable. So we are not aware of the reasons our 90 year-old father in Illinois may not have the heart he needs is for 14 year-old girl in Alaska into the first row (or perhaps our father was in the first line and get it while the girl is 14 years old). Given that most of us remain uncomfortable with the idea of rationing health care based on criteria such as age or utility to society, as technological innovation continues to drive up health care spending, we very well might at some point have to make critical judgments about the value of medical innovation throughout our society to sacrifice access to other goods and services (unless we are so stupid as to repeat the critical error to believe we can continue to borrow money forever without having to pay back).
So what value do we get? It varies. Risk of death from heart attacks has dropped by 66% since 1950 as a result of technological innovation. Because heart disease ranks as the number one cause of death in the U.S. is likely to rank high on the scale value is favorable most of the population in important ways. As a result of advances in pharmacology, we can now treat depression, anxiety, psychosis and even much better than anyone could have imagined even until the mid 1980′s (when Prozac was first released). Clearly, then, some health care cost increases have resulted in tremendous value we do not want to give up.
But how do we decide whether we get good value from a new innovation? Scientific studies have proved innovative (whether a new test or treatment) actually provides significant clinical benefit (Aricept is a good example of a drug that works but does not provide clinical benefit of the patient — crazy score higher on tests of cognitive ability while on it but probably not significantly more functional or significantly better able to remember their children than when they are not). But comparative effectiveness research is very expensive, take longer to resolve, and never can be perfectly applied to each individual patient, all of which means that some health care providers always have to apply good medical judgment for each patient’s problems.
Who is the best position to assess the value for the benefit of an innovation — that is, to decide whether the benefits of an innovation that justifies the cost? I think the group that ultimately pays for it: the American public. How the public views can be reconciled and then effectively communicated to policy makers in an efficient enough to influence actual policy, however, lies far beyond the scope of this paper (and perhaps anyone’s imagination).
ACCESS PROBLEM
Most of the population is uninsured or underinsured, limiting or eliminating their access to health care. As a result, the group found the road a bit (and cheapest) — Emergency Room — resistance is significantly impaired the ability of our nation’s ER doctors to really make timely emergency care. In addition, the survey suggests looming shortage of primary physician care relative to the demand for their services. In my view, the imbalance between supply and demand explain most of the patients poor customer service are facing in our system every day: long wait times for doctor appointments, long waiting times in doctors’ offices once a day they came to the appointment, then spent a short time with the doctor in the exam room, followed by difficulty reaching their doctor between office visits, and finally the delay in getting test results. This imbalance may be only partially solved with less health care overutilization by patients.
SOLUTION MANUAL
As Freaknomics author Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner states, “If morality represents how people want the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does not work.” Capitalism is based on the principle of enlightened self-interest, a system that creates incentives to produce behavior that is beneficial to both suppliers and consumers and thus society as a whole. But when it gets damaged incentives, people start to behave in ways that continue to benefit them often at the expense of others or even their own expense on the road. Whatever changes we make in our health care system (and there are always more than one way to skin a cat), we must be sure to align the incentives so that the resulting behavior of each part of the system contribute to the sustainability and not its destruction.
Here then is a summary of what I consider the best advice I’ve come across to solve the problem I described above:
A. Changing the way insurance companies think about doing business. Insurance companies have the same goals as all other business: maximize profits. And if a public health insurance company and in your 401k portfolio, you want them to maximize profits, too. Unfortunately, the best way for them to do this is to deny their services to customers who are paying for them. More difficult for them to spread the risk (a function of each insurance company) relative to say, an automobile insurance company, because far more people making claims of health insurance claims car insurance. It seems, therefore, from the perspective of consumers, private health insurance model is fundamentally flawed. We need to create a disincentive for insurers to deny health claims (or, conversely, an additional incentive for them to pay for them). Allow and encourage aross-state insurance competition will be at least partially engage the free market forces to lower insurance premiums as well as open up new markets for local insurance companies, benefiting both consumers and insurance providers. With their customers are now armed with the power which is very important to go to other places, health insurance companies may come to see the quality that they actually provide services to their customers (ie, paid claims) as a way to maintain and grow their business. To work, a monopoly or near monopoly should be disbanded or at least discouraged. Even if it does not work, however, the government will probably still have to tighten regulation of health insurance industry to ensure some heinous violations are happening now stop (for example, insurance companies should not be allowed to stratify consumers into sub-groups based on age and increased premiums based on risk higher average older group of diseases because older consumers are more healthy then end up being penalized for their age than their behavior). Karl Denninger suggests some interesting ideas in a posting on his blog about requiring insurance companies to offer a price identical to businesses and individuals as well as creating the “open enrollment” shall where participants can only opt in or out on the basis of the annual plan. This will prevent individuals from buying insurance only when they are sick, which eliminates the problem of adverse selection that encouraged insurance companies to deny payment for a preexisting condition. I would add that, however the level of reimbursement to health care providers specified in the future (again, a whole separate post), all health insurance plans, whether private or public, need to replace the health care providers with the same percentage to eliminate the existence of insurance “good “and” bad “it’s currently responsible for motivating hospitals and physicians to limit or even deny service to the poor and who may be responsible for the same thing happens to the elderly in the future (Medicare reimbursement is only slightly better than the Medicaid ). Finally, the notion of “public option” insurance plan open to all, I am worried that if it is significantly cheaper than a personal choice while providing almost the same benefits across the country will rush to it in bulk, encourage private insurance companies out of business and forcing us to subsidize the health care of each other with higher taxes and fewer choices, but at the same time if the cost to consumers of a “public option” remains comparable to personal choice, the people who were meant to help not will be able to buy it.
2. Motivate people to engage in healthy lifestyles that have been proven to prevent disease. Disease prevention may save money, although some have argued that living longer increases the chance of developing the disease that would not otherwise occur, leading to overall consumption of health care dollars more (though even if it is true, those extra years of life will be judged by most valuable enough to justify the extra cost. After all, the whole purpose of health care is to improve the quality and quantity of life, not save society money. Let us not put the cart before the horse). However, the idea of preventing a potentially bad outcome sometime in the future is only weakly psychologically motivate, explain why so many people having so much trouble getting myself to exercise, eat right, lose weight, quit smoking, etc. The idea of financially rewarding the desired behavior and / or financially punishing the unwanted behavior is very controversial. Although I fear this kind of risk that the policy strategy that could impinge on basic freedoms if taken too far, I am not against thinking creatively about how we can harness the power of a strong motivation to help people achieve their health goals you want to achieve. After all, most obese people to lose weight. Most smokers want to quit. They may be more successful if they could find a more powerful motivation.
3. Decrease overutilization of health care resources by physicians. I agree with Gawande that finding ways to get doctors to stop overutilizing health care resources is a worthy goal that will significantly control costs, that it will require a willingness to experiment, and that it will take time. Furthermore, I agree that focusing only on those who pay for health care (either public or private sector) will fail to adequately address this issue. But how exactly can we motivate the doctors, the pen was responsible for most of the money spent on health care in this country, to focus on what is really best for their patients? The idea that an external body — whether the insurance company or a government panel — can be used to set the standard of care physicians must follow in order to control costs for me, is ridiculous. These agencies do not have the training or the main concern for the welfare of the patient can be trusted to make their judgments. Why else would we need a doctor if it does not employ their expertise to implement nuanced approach to complex situations? During their work in a system of incentives to compete freely with their duty to their patients, they remain in the best position to make decisions about what tests and treatments should be considered a particular patient, as long as they are careful to avoid overconfident paternalism (refusing to get CT head for headache may overconfidently paternalistic; refused to offer chemotherapy to colds do not). So maybe we should eliminate the financial incentives doctors have to care about anything but the welfare of their patients, which means that doctors’ salaries should be cut off from the number of operations they’re doing and the number of tests they order, and instead should be determined by market forces. This model already exists in health care centers do not seem to promote academic and bad treatment when doctors feel they are paid fairly. Doctors need to have a good life to compensate for years of training and a large amount of debt they collect, but there is no financial incentive to practice medicine more should be allowed to attach itself to the good life.
4. Decrease overutilization of health care resources by patients. This, in my opinion, requires at least three interventions:
* Make available appropriate resources to correct the problem (so that patients will not ER for colds, for example, but to their primary care physician). This will require hitting the “sweet spot” of the number of primary care physicians, the best on the front line of gatekeeping, not health spending as in the old HMO model, but from the triage and treatment. It will also require re-calculate reimbursement rates for primary care services relative to a specific service to encourage more medical students to enter primary care (as opposed to an alarming trend we have seen over the last ten years).
* A massive effort to improve public health literacy to improve its ability to triage the complaint itself (so the patient does not really go anywhere for a cold or MRI requests from physicians on their backs when they trusted told them it was just stress). It is probably best done through a series of educational programs (although given that no one in the private sector have an incentive to fund such programs, in fact probably one of the few things the government should — we’d only need to study and compare the different educational programs and methods to see which, if any, to reduce unnecessary use without worsening patient outcomes and result in savings of more health care than they cost).
* Redesign the patient’s insurance plan to make in some ways a more financially responsible for their health care choices. We can not have people go bankrupt because of illness, we also do not want people to underutilize health care resources (avoiding the ER when they have chest pain, for example), but we also can not continue to support a system where patients are actually motivated to overutilize resources, as the current “pre-pay all” model no.
CONCLUSION
Given the enormous complexity of the health care system, there is no single post may be able to overcome any problems that need fixing. Significant issues are not raised in this article include the challenges associated with rising drug costs, direct to consumer marketing of pharmaceuticals, end-of-life care, skyrocketing malpractice insurance costs, lack of cost transparency which allows hospitals to charge uninsured more paradoxical than the insured for the same care, expanding health care insurance coverage for those who still do not have it, improve administrative efficiency to reduce costs, the implementation of electronic medical records to reduce medical errors, the financial burden that businesses must provide their employees with health insurance, and tort reform. All are highly interdependent, stood together like the proverbial house of cards. To attend a single one is to affect them all, which is why health care reform rushed through without careful contemplation risk unintended consequences and potentially devastating. Changes do not need to come, but if we do not allow ourselves time to think through problems clearly and cleverly, and implementing solutions with measurable way, we risk dropping that house of cards instead of cementing it.